Health status and medical treatment of the future elderly : final report / Dana P. Goldman [and others]. - Santa Monica, CA : RAND, ©2004. - 1 online resource (xxxv, 228 pages) : illustrations

"TR-169-CMS, August 2004, prepared for the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services."

Includes bibliographical references (pages 214-228).

Prospects for medical advances in the 21st century -- The medical expert panels -- The future elderly model (FEM) -- Health expenditures -- Health status -- The health status of future Medicare entering cohorts -- Scenarios -- Usefulness to the Office of the Actuary -- Conclusions.

The ability to predict future health care costs reasonably accurately is critical to planning for the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS). The models used for such projections to date, however, are limited in terms of their capacity to take into account the complex array of factors likely to affect future spending. To improve CMS's ability to map the effects on spending of such factors as medical breakthroughs and demographic trends, RAND Health developed the Future Elderly Model (FEM), a demographic-economic model framework of health spending projections that enables the user to answer "what-if" questions about the effects of changes in health status and disease treatment on future health care costs. What distinguishes the FEM from other models is its inclusion of a multidimensional characterization of health status, which allows the user to include a richer set of demographic controls as well as comorbid conditions and functional status. This report describes the development of the FEM and its application in four clinical areas: cardiovascular disease, the biology of aging and cancer, neurological disease, and changes in health care services. Beside those involved in planning at the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, it should be of interest to health policy planners and health economists.

0833057987 9780833057983

22573/ctt5ckv JSTOR


Medical care--Mathematical models.--United States
Medical care, Cost of--Forecasting.--United States
Older people--Health and hygiene--Forecasting.--United States
Older people--Medical care--Economic aspects--United States.
Adult.
Age Groups.
Aged--United States.
Aged.
Anthropology, Education, Sociology and Social Phenomena.
Costs and Cost Analysis.
Delivery of Health Care.
Demography.
Economics.
Environment and Public Health.
Epidemiologic Measurements.
Financing, Government.
Financing, Organized.
Health Care Economics and Organizations.
Health Care Facilities, Manpower, and Services.
Health Care Quality, Access, and Evaluation.
Health Care.
Health Expenditures--trends--United States.
Health Expenditures.
Health Planning--United States.
Health Planning.
Health Services for the Aged--economics--United States.
Health Services for the Aged.
Health Services.
Health Status--Aged--United States.
Health Status.
Insurance, Health.
Insurance.
Legislation as Topic.
Medical Assistance.
Medicare--economics.
Medicare.
Named Groups.
Persons.
Population Characteristics.
Population Dynamics--United States.
Population Dynamics.
Public Assistance.
Public Health.
Social Control, Formal.
Social Sciences.
Medical care--Mathematical models.
Medical care, Cost of--Forecasting.
MEDICAL--Health Policy.
Health Expenditures--trends--United States.
Health Expenditures--trends.
Health Services for the Aged--economics--United States.
Health Services for the Aged--economics.
Health Planning--United States.
Health Planning.
Health Status--Aged--United States.
Health Status--Aged.
Health Status--United States.
Health Status.
Medicare--economics.
Population Dynamics--United States.
Population Dynamics.


United States.
United States.


Electronic book.
Electronic books.

RA564.8 / .H453 2004

613/.0438/097301

WT 31 / H4344 2004