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The future of driving in developing countries / Liisa Ecola, Charlene Rohr, Johanna Zmud, Tobias Kuhnimhof, Peter Phleps.

By: Contributor(s): Material type: TextTextSeries: Technical report (Rand Corporation) ; RR-636-ifmo.Publisher: Santa Monica, Calif. : RAND, [2014]Copyright date: ©2014Description: 1 online resource (xiv, 115 pages) : color illustrations, color chartsContent type:
  • text
Media type:
  • computer
Carrier type:
  • online resource
ISBN:
  • 0833089811
  • 9780833089816
Report number: RR-636-ifmoSubject(s): Genre/Form: Additional physical formats: Print version:: Future of driving in developing countries.DDC classification:
  • 388.34 23
LOC classification:
  • HE5725
Online resources:
Contents:
Introduction -- Evolutionary paths of mobility -- Study methodology -- Historical mobility development in four OECD countries -- Comparison of factors among the four OECD countries -- Future mobility paths of Brazil, Russia, India, and China -- Conclusions -- Appendix A: Data sources -- Appendix B: Country travel demand experts -- Appendix C: Factor fact sheets and flag-game results -- Appendix D: Estimating the parameters for a Gompertz model of vehicle-kilometers traveled per capita.
Summary: The level of automobility, defined as travel in personal vehicles, is often seen as a function of income: The higher a country's per capita income, the greater the amount of driving. However, levels of automobility vary quite substantially between countries even at similar levels of economic development. This suggests that countries follow different mobility paths. The research detailed in this report sought to answer three questions: What are the factors besides economic development that affect automobility? What is their influence on automobility? What will happen to automobility in developing countries if they progress along similar paths as developed countries? To answer these questions, the authors developed a methodology to identify these factors, model their impact on developed countries, and forecast automobility (as defined by per capita vehicle-kilometers traveled [VKT]) in four developing countries. This methodology draws on quantitative analysis of historical automobility development in four country case studies (the United States, Australia, Germany, and Japan) that represent very different levels of per capita automobility, in combination with data derived from an expert-based qualitative approach. The authors used the latter to assess how these experiences may affect the future of automobility in the BRIC countries: Brazil, Russia, India, and China. According to this analysis, automobility levels in the four BRIC countries will fall between those of the United States (which has the highest per capita VKT level of the four case studies) and Japan (which has the lowest). Brazil is forecasted to have the highest per capita VKT and India the lowest.
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E-books E-books Hugenote College Main Campus Digital version Not for loan Only accessible on campus.

Title from PDF title page (viewed on August 13, 2014).

Includes bibliographical references (pages 108-113).

Introduction -- Evolutionary paths of mobility -- Study methodology -- Historical mobility development in four OECD countries -- Comparison of factors among the four OECD countries -- Future mobility paths of Brazil, Russia, India, and China -- Conclusions -- Appendix A: Data sources -- Appendix B: Country travel demand experts -- Appendix C: Factor fact sheets and flag-game results -- Appendix D: Estimating the parameters for a Gompertz model of vehicle-kilometers traveled per capita.

The level of automobility, defined as travel in personal vehicles, is often seen as a function of income: The higher a country's per capita income, the greater the amount of driving. However, levels of automobility vary quite substantially between countries even at similar levels of economic development. This suggests that countries follow different mobility paths. The research detailed in this report sought to answer three questions: What are the factors besides economic development that affect automobility? What is their influence on automobility? What will happen to automobility in developing countries if they progress along similar paths as developed countries? To answer these questions, the authors developed a methodology to identify these factors, model their impact on developed countries, and forecast automobility (as defined by per capita vehicle-kilometers traveled [VKT]) in four developing countries. This methodology draws on quantitative analysis of historical automobility development in four country case studies (the United States, Australia, Germany, and Japan) that represent very different levels of per capita automobility, in combination with data derived from an expert-based qualitative approach. The authors used the latter to assess how these experiences may affect the future of automobility in the BRIC countries: Brazil, Russia, India, and China. According to this analysis, automobility levels in the four BRIC countries will fall between those of the United States (which has the highest per capita VKT level of the four case studies) and Japan (which has the lowest). Brazil is forecasted to have the highest per capita VKT and India the lowest.

Performed by RAND Transportation, Space, and Technology Program for Institute for Mobility Research (ifmo).

Print version record.

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